Problem-Solving and Data AnalysisHardRecognising a confounding explanation
Problem-Solving and Data Analysis practice question
A study finds that towns with more ice-cream shops have higher rates of sunburn. Which of the following is the most reasonable explanation for this association?
- A. Both ice-cream shops and sunburn are more common in places with hot, sunny weather.Correct
- B. Eating ice cream causes sunburn.
- C. Sunburn causes people to open ice-cream shops.
- D. The association must be a coincidence.
Answer: A. Both ice-cream shops and sunburn are more common in places with hot, sunny weather.
A third factor — sunny weather — drives both.
Why the other answers are wrong
- B. Eating ice cream causes sunburn.
- No mechanism links ice cream to sunburn; the weather explains both.
- C. Sunburn causes people to open ice-cream shops.
- Backwards and implausible.
- D. The association must be a coincidence.
- The association has a clear common cause, so it is not merely coincidence.
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