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Craft and StructureHardTwo views on election forecasting

Craft and Structure practice question

Text 1 A good election forecast is weather reporting for civic life: it aggregates polls honestly, states its uncertainty, and leaves voters better informed than rumor would. Text 2 Weather does not read the forecast. Voters do — and a widely publicized comfortable lead tells some supporters their ballot is unneeded. The forecast then helps produce a result different from the one it projected, something no rain cloud ever did.

Which choice best describes the relationship between the texts?

  1. A. Text 2 argues that the practice Text 1 defends changes the outcome it claims merely to predict.Correct
  2. B. Text 2 maintains that forecasts are usually arithmetically wrong.
  3. C. Both texts agree forecasts should be published more frequently.
  4. D. Text 1 addresses polling methods, while Text 2 addresses vote counting.

Answer: A. Text 2 argues that the practice Text 1 defends changes the outcome it claims merely to predict.

Text 1 defends forecasts as neutral information; Text 2's point is feedback — a published 'safe' margin can depress turnout and alter the very result, so prediction is not neutral.

Why the other answers are wrong

B. Text 2 maintains that forecasts are usually arithmetically wrong.
Text 2's concern is influence, not calculation errors.
C. Both texts agree forecasts should be published more frequently.
Neither text discusses publication frequency.
D. Text 1 addresses polling methods, while Text 2 addresses vote counting.
Vote counting is not Text 2's subject; behavioral feedback is.

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