16Hit1600
Information and IdeasVery hardIsolating a causal claim from a rival explanation

Information and Ideas practice question

The Ashgrove Public Library, which serves a town of 6,000, began hosting a free Saturday morning story hour for young children in 2019. Over the next four years, checkouts of juvenile fiction at the library rose 40 percent. Director Nadia Kerr credits story hour: families who come for the reading, she argues, leave with armloads of picture books and then return for more. A library trustee counters that Ashgrove's population of young children has grown quickly over the same period, so the library would have recorded more juvenile checkouts even if story hour had never been offered.

Which finding, if true, would most directly support Kerr's explanation rather than the trustee's?

  1. A. Weekly story hour attendance grew from about 12 children in 2019 to about 45 children in 2023.
  2. B. Households that signed in at story hour at least once nearly tripled their annual juvenile fiction checkouts between 2019 and 2023, while households with children under 8 that never attended story hour checked out about as many juvenile titles in 2023 as in 2019.Correct
  3. C. Checkouts of all library materials, including adult nonfiction and DVDs, rose 39 percent between 2019 and 2023.
  4. D. In a 2023 survey, 84 percent of story hour parents said that reading aloud to young children is important.

Answer: B. Households that signed in at story hour at least once nearly tripled their annual juvenile fiction checkouts between 2019 and 2023, while households with children under 8 that never attended story hour checked out about as many juvenile titles in 2023 as in 2019.

Kerr's explanation requires that the extra checkouts be concentrated among story hour families; the trustee's requires only that more young children live in town. Choice B delivers exactly that contrast: attendees' borrowing tripled while comparable non-attending households with young children did not change, which cannot be explained by a townwide rise in the number of children. Choice A is the error of treating the program's growing popularity as evidence about checkouts; attendance figures say nothing about whether those families borrowed books, and a growing child population would also raise attendance. Choice C is the error of accepting any increase as support: a nearly identical rise in adult nonfiction and DVDs points to general growth in library use, which favors the trustee. Choice D is the error of substituting a stated attitude for measured behavior, and parents who already valued reading aloud may have been heavy borrowers before story hour existed.

Why the other answers are wrong

A. Weekly story hour attendance grew from about 12 children in 2019 to about 45 children in 2023.
Growing attendance shows story hour got more popular, not that attendees borrowed more books — and a rising number of young children in town would also push attendance up, which is exactly the trustee's point.
C. Checkouts of all library materials, including adult nonfiction and DVDs, rose 39 percent between 2019 and 2023.
A nearly identical 39 percent rise in adult nonfiction and DVDs suggests general growth in library use rather than an effect of a children's story hour, so this actually favors the trustee.
D. In a 2023 survey, 84 percent of story hour parents said that reading aloud to young children is important.
This reports an attitude, not borrowing behavior — and parents who already valued reading aloud may well have been heavy borrowers before story hour existed.

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