16Hit1600
Information and IdeasVery hardMatching evidence to a specific proposed mechanism

Information and Ideas practice question

The Ellsworth Farmers' Market began hiring local bands to play for two hours each Saturday in 2022. Since then, average sales per vendor have run about a third higher on Saturdays with music than on Saturdays without it. Economist Priya Raval doubts the usual account of why. The music, she hypothesizes, does not bring additional shoppers to the market; the crowd is roughly the same size either way. Instead, the music holds shoppers on the grounds longer, and a shopper who lingers ends up buying from more stalls.

Which finding, if true, would most directly support Raval's hypothesis?

  1. A. Total sales across the market are about 34 percent higher on Saturdays with music than on Saturdays without it.
  2. B. Entrance counts show that roughly 30 percent more shoppers arrive at the market on Saturdays with music.
  3. C. Entrance counts show about the same number of shoppers arriving on Saturdays with and without music, while timed observations show that the average shopper stays 22 minutes longer and buys from two more stalls when a band is playing.Correct
  4. D. Shoppers interviewed on Saturdays with music rated their visit as more enjoyable than shoppers interviewed on Saturdays without music did.

Answer: C. Entrance counts show about the same number of shoppers arriving on Saturdays with and without music, while timed observations show that the average shopper stays 22 minutes longer and buys from two more stalls when a band is playing.

Raval's hypothesis has two parts: attendance is unchanged, and each shopper stays longer and buys from more stalls. Choice C confirms both parts with independent measurements, ruling out the attendance channel she rejects and establishing the lingering channel she proposes. Choice A is the error of restating the pattern that already needs explaining; higher total sales are equally consistent with more shoppers or with longer visits. Choice B supports the rival explanation Raval explicitly denies, so it counts against her hypothesis rather than for it. Choice D is the error of accepting a plausible intermediate feeling as evidence: enjoyment is neither the duration nor the purchasing behavior the hypothesis specifies, and shoppers could enjoy the music without staying longer or buying more.

Why the other answers are wrong

A. Total sales across the market are about 34 percent higher on Saturdays with music than on Saturdays without it.
Higher total sales is the pattern that needs explaining in the first place — it fits either more shoppers or longer visits, so it can't distinguish Raval's hypothesis from the usual account.
B. Entrance counts show that roughly 30 percent more shoppers arrive at the market on Saturdays with music.
Raval explicitly claims the crowd is about the same size either way, so 30 percent more arrivals supports the rival explanation and works against her.
D. Shoppers interviewed on Saturdays with music rated their visit as more enjoyable than shoppers interviewed on Saturdays without music did.
Enjoyment isn't what the hypothesis predicts — shoppers could like the band without staying longer or buying from more stalls, which are the specific things Raval says drive the sales gap.

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