Problem-Solving and Data AnalysisMediumWhat the margin of error applies to
Problem-Solving and Data Analysis practice question
A poll of 1,000 randomly selected voters finds that 46% intend to vote for Candidate X, with a margin of error of 3 percentage points. Which of the following is the best interpretation?
- A. The percentage of ALL voters who intend to vote for X is plausibly between 43% and 49%.Correct
- B. Exactly 46% of all voters intend to vote for X.
- C. Between 43% and 49% of the 1,000 polled voters intend to vote for X.
- D. Candidate X will receive 46% of the vote in the election.
Answer: A. The percentage of ALL voters who intend to vote for X is plausibly between 43% and 49%.
The margin of error describes uncertainty about the population value, not the sample.
Why the other answers are wrong
- B. Exactly 46% of all voters intend to vote for X.
- 46% is the sample's figure; the population value is uncertain.
- C. Between 43% and 49% of the 1,000 polled voters intend to vote for X.
- The sample's figure is known exactly: 46%. The margin applies to the population.
- D. Candidate X will receive 46% of the vote in the election.
- A poll of intentions is not an election result.
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