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Problem-Solving and Data AnalysisMediumComparing an observed value with a predicted value

Problem-Solving and Data Analysis practice question

For a certain value of x, a line of best fit predicts a y-value of 42. The actual data point in the scatterplot at that value of x has a y-value of 47.

Which statement best describes this data point?

  1. A. The point lies above the line of best fit, and the model underestimates the actual value.Correct
  2. B. The point lies above the line of best fit, and the model overestimates the actual value.
  3. C. The point lies below the line of best fit, and the model underestimates the actual value.
  4. D. The point lies below the line of best fit, and the model overestimates the actual value.

Answer: A. The point lies above the line of best fit, and the model underestimates the actual value.

The actual value, 47, is greater than the predicted value, 42, so the point sits higher than the line at that x-value — above it. Because the model's prediction falls short of what was observed, the model underestimates there.

Why the other answers are wrong

B. The point lies above the line of best fit, and the model overestimates the actual value.
The position is right but the direction of the error is not. Predicting 42 when the true value is 47 means the model came in too low, which is an underestimate.
C. The point lies below the line of best fit, and the model underestimates the actual value.
The direction of the error is right but the position is not. A point whose y-value exceeds the prediction is drawn above the line, not below it.
D. The point lies below the line of best fit, and the model overestimates the actual value.
Both parts are reversed. An actual value larger than the prediction puts the point above the line and makes the prediction too small.

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