Problem-Solving and Data AnalysisMediumInterpreting a poll's margin of error
Problem-Solving and Data Analysis practice question
A poll of 1,000 randomly selected voters found that 52% support a ballot measure, with a margin of error of 3 percentage points. Which conclusion is most reasonable?
- A. It is plausible that between 49% and 55% of all voters support the measure.Correct
- B. Exactly 52% of all voters support the measure.
- C. The measure is certain to pass.
- D. At least 55% of all voters support the measure.
Answer: A. It is plausible that between 49% and 55% of all voters support the measure.
The margin of error gives a plausible range for the population value around the sample result: 52% − 3 = 49% to 52% + 3 = 55%.
Why the other answers are wrong
- B. Exactly 52% of all voters support the measure.
- 52% is the SAMPLE result. The population value is probably near it, not exactly it — that's what the margin of error expresses.
- C. The measure is certain to pass.
- The plausible range runs from 49% to 55%, and 49% is below a majority. Passage isn't certain.
- D. At least 55% of all voters support the measure.
- 55% is the TOP of the plausible range, not a minimum.
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